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Posted: July 17, 2008 EIGHT IN '08By Celia Cohen Delaware's 2008 campaign goes into its high season next Friday, the deadline for candidates to file. Here is a brief guide of what to watch in the months leading to Election Day. Call it "Eight in '08." 1. A Nation Turns Its Wondering Eyes to Joe Joe Biden is popping up on the speculative lists for vice president and secretary of state for Barack Obama. It is evidence that Biden did come out of his short-lived presidential campaign with enhanced stature. Who knew that bombing in Iowa could lead to starring on Pennsylvania Avenue? Biden is on the ballot for a seventh Senate term, which would break his own record. The Republicans are doing nothing more than going through the motions of challenging him. If his foreign policy credentials do snare him the Democrats' vice presidential nomination, there is nothing to prevent him from running for both offices. The real circus begins if there is an Obama administration and Biden is in it. His Senate seat would be filled until the 2010 election with someone appointed by the governor. But which governor? Gov. Minner? She holds office until Jan. 20, the same day the next president is inaugurated. Gov. Carney? Gov. Markell? The possibilities for deal making are endless. The only option that looks out of the question is letting Gov. Lee do the appointing. No doubt Biden would time his resignation to prevent a Republican replacement. So much for Sen. Castle. 2. Delaware is Having a John-and-Jack-Attack The rumble has broken out between John Carney and Jack Markell in the primary for the nomination for governor. Carney's Democratic regulars against Markell's Democratic irregulars. Carney's party endorsement against Markell's treasury. It-is-Carney's-turn against it-is-Markell's-time. The two campaigns are going to flood this state like spam on steroids. With the registration rolls showing almost 85,000 more Democrats than Republicans, the governorship is the Democrats to lose, and they still would have to work at it. The Republicans' most opportunistic scenario has Carney barely beating Markell and going into the general election so punched out, so broke and so vulnerable to a drumbeat of Minner-Carney-Minner-Carney that Bill Lee slips through. 3. Will RGA Stand for "Rich, Generous & Aggressive"? When Bill Lee ran for governor four years ago, the Republican Governors Association poured $246,000 into Delaware. The RGA paid for political advertising that mauled Ruth Ann Minner, the Democratic governor running for her second term, over a prison crisis involving the hostage-taking and rape of a counselor. In language that became infamous, Minner was accused of "arrogance and incompetence." The attack was regarded as a key element in Lee's near-upset. Lee is back, and the RGA will be, too. The two joined together to hold a private fund raiser last weekend at Granogue, one of the premier du Pont estates in Chateau Country, and the RGA's executive director recently told Politico.com that Delaware's gubernatorial race will be targeted. No one should be surprised if the RGA far surpasses what it spent here in 2004. If only the RGA still had Minner to go after . . . 4. All the Running You Can Do to Keep in the Same Place As centuries go, the 21st has been unkind to the Republicans. Since 2000 they have lost a U.S. senator, an attorney general and an insurance commissioner, so only two of the nine statewide officeholders are theirs -- Congressman Mike Castle, who is up for election this year, and Auditor Tom Wagner, who is not. The Republican majority in the state House of Representatives, the party's last power base in Legislative Hall, is down to two seats, 22-19, and facing a furious onslaught from the Democrats. Expectations are so low that anything better than extinction in this election would be uplifting. Keeping the House would be a relief. Electing Charlie Copeland as lieutenant governor or John Brady as insurance commissioner would be a comeback. Winning the governorship would bring on Republican cries of "sancto subito" for Bill Lee -- "Sainthood now!" 5. Follow the Leadership The intrigue in the state Senate will not occur during the election. The Democrats hold the majority, 13-8, and it is hard, if not impossible, to figure how they could lose it. The intrigue will come afterwards, when the Democrats select their leadership for the 145th General Assembly. The top spots in the caucus belong to Thurman Adams as the president pro tem, Tony DeLuca as the majority leader and Patti Blevins as the majority whip. If another Democrat or two are elected, watch out. They could be the votes Blevins needs to move higher in leadership. Even if the number of Democrats is static, it is still a good idea to pay attention to Blevins. 6. Two-timing Candidates Take Earl Jaques. As a Democratic candidate in 2006, he came within 128 votes of unseating state Rep. Vince Lofink, a nine-term Republican. The Democrats would like to think of Jaques not as a one-time loser but as a legislator-in-waiting. Two years ago the Democrats recruited a class of House candidates they prepped to run twice, first for the experience and next perhaps to win. Others included Mike Barbieri against state Rep. Terry Spence, the Republican speaker, and Rebecca Walker against state Rep. Dick Cathcart, the Republican majority leader. Now the rematches are afoot, with the Democrats' hopes highest for Jaques. It is all part of their plan to try to take the majority. This week Jaques officially declared for office. In keeping with the theme of his candidacy, he was surrounded at his announcement in Glasgow by a number of Democratic legislators who lost their first time out -- Minority Whip Helene Keeley, state Rep. Valerie Longhurst, state Rep. John Kowalko and state Rep. Bethany Hall-Long, now running for an open Senate seat. Keeley had to run four times before she got to the House in 1996, so it shows what perseverance can do. Not only is she in the leadership, she has a fine job in the state Labor Department. 7. Shut-outs Are Not Just for Baseball Anymore For a perspective on the Republican Party's fallen state, all it takes is a glance at the roster of candidates who have filed. Zero Republicans are running for New Castle County offices. Only one filed in Wilmington -- for an at-large seat that is guaranteed to the minority party on the City Council. There are a handful of filing days left, but still. Here are the Republicans, of all parties, close to giving the voters a ballot that Lenin could have loved. 8. Bad Boys, Bad Boys, Whatcha Gonna Do? The political class is curious about what the voters will do in two House races touched by scandal. It is unknown how they will treat Vince Lofink, whose son is doing five years for using his state job to try to steal $1.2 million. Nor is the political fate any clearer for John Atkins, an ex-representative driven to resign last year for conduct unbecoming -- a spree of drinking and driving, fighting with his wife and throwing his weight around to try to get out of it. Lofink has taken a tough-love approach toward his son and his crime. The problem is that a judge suggested Lofink went overboard on the "tough" part in his son's youth. Atkins, a three-term Republican now angling to return as a Democrat, is trying to make his election a referendum on regretfulness, forgiveness and second chances. He is running against state Rep. Greg Hastings, a Republican who replaced him by winning a special election. The Democrats would not mind if those races helped them to win control of the 41-member House, although they can be heard to mutter privately for their majority to be big enough so -- please, please, please -- Atkins does not arrive with the mischief-making power he would have if he provided the 21st and deciding vote. ### |
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